Is there a market future for the eVTOL?
The great news is they’re building EV tells everywhere. Startup companies, taxi companies, jets.
They all look incredibly fun. But here’s the bad part. They’re not going to be the next big thing in personal travel like they want you to believe.
We’ve got five quick market future for the eVTOL, compelling reasons to share. And they may not be some things you’ve thought about yet. So let’s get started.
What are eVTOLs?
If you just stepped out of a time machine and you haven’t heard anybody talking about these yet, market future for the eVTOL(market future for the eVTOL) vertical takeoff and landing.
It is essentially a personal power sport toy vehicle, just like a side-by-side or a dirt bike that you can buy right now.
Matter of fact, companies are selling them, and they are advertised to fit in your driveway, fit in your garage, with no pilot’s license required, and travel up to 100 plus miles on a single charge, going upwards of 60 to 100 miles an hour.
They use technology because you don’t need a pilot’s license. They use a technology called fly by intent.
What that does is smart programmers are built into the back-end processor of these devices to take whatever your user input is up, down, left, or right, and they can do the math on the back end and make the vehicle fly perfectly in that direction.
If that sounds a little crazy to you think of something like a DJI drone or some of the high-end drones. Anybody can pick those up and fly them perfectly.
That’s essentially why you don’t need a pilot’s license for this. In addition to Part 103 with the FAA stating that if it’s under a certain weight, I believe £300 and single occupancy, no pilot license is required.
So that’s my quick elevator pitch on what an EV tall is. Now let’s get into five reasons (market future for the eVTOL).
5 Reasons eVTOLs Will NOT be the Next Big Thing
That is the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about.
- It’s a barrier to entry with something like this. The least expensive one available on the market right now that we know the cost of is the Jetson one.
- You’ve probably seen the viral videos of it. It was $92,000. You can make a $20,000 down payment to get yours built, and then on delivery, you owe them the remaining $72,000.
- Next up on the list is blackfly. They say theirs will cost about the price of a luxury SUV, but they haven’t announced that price yet. And I think it’s going to creep up as time goes on.
- You’re looking at somewhere between 70,120 thousand depending on how luxurious you want to go.
- Nonetheless, we’re still talking roughly a six-figure $100,000 threshold. The barrier to entry. And then you have companies like Asca and Lilium, both of which are making incredible vitals, but they’re showing price tags already in the pre-production phases of $789,000.
- We don’t know about you, but I can’t afford that. And then Lilium over a million dollars.
- So essentially these are going to be reserved for the private jet crowds. If you can afford your helicopter and your private jet, you’ll be one of their clients.
- If you look at the dimensions and the size of these just from the renderings and the actual live footage.
- You can tell that these are not exactly something you’re going to be just flying into your garage each day or landing on your driveway and rolling into your garage.
- These are huge. And despite the claims, you’re either going to own your garage just for your EV tall or it’s not going to fit there and looking at storing it, what, at a storage facility where other people’s RVs and broke down boats are.
- You’re not going to want to do that with this brand new EV tall or you have the option of taking it to your local airport and putting it and paying basically like a boat slip where you can keep it on their storage lot with other airplanes.
- That may be a great option to go, but again, not exactly consumer friendly. The barrier to entry.
3- Pilot familiarity
- The beginning is that anybody can fly these. It’s super easy and it’s fly-by intent. Technology, that technology is incredible.
- We use it with my drone and DJI. But let’s be honest, go to a recreational area, watch people ride dirt bikes side by side, and have boating accidents.
- People are crazy about toys. But when you think about the potential for crashes, dumb maneuvering, low passes, and viral video content creators, people are going to push the limits with these.
- Things are going to get ugly. And introduce the next two reasons why market future for the eVTOL will not be the next big thing.
- These greedy insurance companies have no problem putting their double horns on and taking all your money each month to ensure your EV is tall.
- They’ll take money for anything. But let’s think about those premium prices.
- So now you have a device that physically flies, carrying an occupant, flying God knows where or who knows where, over what property lines, over what boundaries.
What type of liabilities is covering for these property owners that you’re flying over and potentially could be damaging crashing into low flying?
- That is going to impose a lot of problems. And insurance companies just from the crash alone, insurance is going to be expensive.
Now you talk about all the extra liabilities that come with flying this thing. I think insurance is huge, and take a lot of people out of the buyer’s pool just for that reason alone.
5- Government Regulation
Which is the big stupid elephant in the room wearing a suit. And that’d be the government regulations that will come with owning an EV tall.
- They’ve probably got some committees designated to creating some rules and boundaries for EV tells, but they’re not taking them into account and then they have because they’re reactive, they’re not proactive.
- The government is very reactive. So they’re going to say, yeah, go ahead. Part 103 is eligible.
- You don’t need a license for it. Go ahead, fly it. Just stay under 400ft or whatever little rules they have in place.
What happens when the things we talked about earlier start happening?
You’re flying over private property boundaries(market future for the eVTOL), you’re flying in commercial airspace(market future for the eVTOL). You’re flying near events, crowds, and close to streets, to buildings.
It’ll be like a list just getting longer and longer by the day of all the new rules they come out with for EV tells.
So by the time you factor in all these stupid rules for (market future for the eVTOL), people act ridiculous when they fly them, where you’re going to store it, how to pay for it, how much to spend on storage and insurance.
Essentially almost all of these are going to be well over $100,000 and very expensive.
Those five reasons, my friends, in the next ten years, years, I’d say are not going to be the next big thing.